Random Thoughts from Lebanon

My comment earlier today about the presence of the Turkish prime minister at the election of the new Lebanese president last Sunday may well have been right. Today the Syrian president met a visiting UK parliamentary delegation in Damascus and referred to the possibility of Lebanese/Israeli peace talks. It looks as though Syria is preparing to dump Hizbullah, but if this happens how will Hizbullah react and what will be the attitude of Iran? Watch this space.

One week after the successful conclusion of the talks in Doha, Lebanon has a new president - the consensus candidate Michel Suleiman - and the parliamentary majority has nominated outgoing Prime Minister, Fouad Sinioura, as their choice to form the next government. Now begins the process of forming the new 30 member cabinet, in which the majority will nominate 16 members, the Hizbullah led opposition 11 and the president 3. No doubt there will be a lot of negotiating and who gets which ministry, but the process, lead by the new president, is expected to be completed fairly quickly.

What does all this mean for Lebanon and the region? The election and swearing-in of the new president on Sunday evening was attended by, among others, the foreign ministers of Syria and Iran (who sat side by side), the Saudi, French and Italian foreign ministers and, of course the Ruler of Qatar and his prime minister, through whose efforts the compromise was reached. Also present was a US Congressional delegation of 6 people, and another, somewhat strange, attendee was the Turkish prime minister. We must remember, however, that Israel and Syria are at present conducting peace talks under Turkish auspices; could it be that Mr Erdogan was testing the waters on the possibility of bringing Lebanon into the peace talks?

It is impossible that the deal done in Doha could have materialised without the agreement of Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Undoubtably, all were concerned that the events in Lebanon could develop into a wider Sunni-Shia conflict in the Middle East, something which, it seems, none of them wants at this time.

If the Syrian/Israeli talks produce results it will be a blow for Hizbullah and Iran, but can only benefit Lebanon. Little is likely to happen until a change of Administration in Washington and we must hope and pray that Mr Bush does not decide to embark on any more ill-advised ventures in the region during his last months in office.

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The Lebanese political leadership has stepped back from the abyss and concluded a deal in Doha in the early hours of this morning. Everyone agrees that no one got everything they were demanding but an undoubted winner is the Hizbullah led opposition who have been allocated 11 members in a 30 member cabinet, which will give them veto powers over major decisions. It remains to be seen how this may affect the international tribunal being established to try the suspects in the  assassination of Rafiq Hariri. The present government agreed to the establishment of the tribunal after the opposition members withdrew from the cabinet in December 2006, and the opposition attitude has always been that cabinet decisions since the withdrawal are invalid. On the other hand, and undoubted looses is the United States, which has expressed unswerving support for the government of Fouad Siniora. Although Condolesa Rice has expressed satisfaction that the agreement has been concluded and further inter-communal fighting stopped, she cannot be very happy with the increased influence of Hizbullah in government.

During today the opposition tented camp in downtown Beirut is being dismantled and Hizbullah say this will be completed by midnight. The Speaker has called parliament into session for Sunday to elect the consensus candidate, commander of the army Michel Suleiman, as the next president. No one has mentioned for many months that there is a need to amend the constitution before he can legally take up the office - it provides that any senior government employee, which includes army officers, cannot run for the presidency until at least two years have elapsed since their resignation or retirement from government service. Maybe the constitution will also be amended on Sunday.

There seems to be a mixture of relief and indifference among Lebanese at the results of the Doha agreement. Many are not convinced that it is a long term solution to Lebanon’s many political problems but for the immediate future calm and normality (whatever that means in Lebanon) may prevail. Perhaps there is hope to salvage something of the summer tourist season and revive the moribund businesses in the downtown area of Beirut.

The events of the last 10 days have resulted in a new situation in the country. Hizbullah has used its weapons against Lebanese - something it said it would never do - and proved that its military strength could enable it to take over the country if it wished, the Government was forced to back down on two controversial decisions which Hizbullah considered to be a declaration of war against them and the army came close to splitting along sectarian lines.  Walid Jumblat, leader of the Druze community, whose press conference in which he “revealed” what everyone knew already about the Hizbullah communications network and the security staff at Beirut airport, seemed shocked by the results of his outburst, as did all the political leadership, not to mention the entire population of the country.

Enter, again, the Arab League. Its Secretary General, Amr Moussa, has been shuttling to and from Beirut for months in an attempt to negotiate a solution to the political deadlock, but to no avail.  However, a Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Cairo last Sunday decided to appoint a ministerial committee, headed by the Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al Thani. In 24 hours he achieved what no one else had been able to do - obtained an agreement on an immediate return to the status quo ante and pursuaded the political leaders to acompany him back to Doha for negotiations on the core issues - the election of a president, the formation of a national unity government and a new electoral law.

One major issue that does not seem to be on the agenda for the Doha talks is the international tribunal to try the alledged assassins of former prime minister, Rafic Hariri. This may well be another stumbling block along the way, but, for now, the outlook is brighter than it was a week ago.

Beirut airport re-opened last night and the port resumed work this morning. The main border crossing into Syria has also reopened and business is getting back to normal. Let us hope that the Doha talks yield real results.

As I write this, at 4.15 pm local time, we have had main electricity continuously for the last 48 hours. To people in most parts of the world this may not seem unusual, but in Lebanon the electricity supply has been quite severely rationed for many years. A combination of incompetence and corruption and the reluctance of consumers to pay their bills all contribute to the problems of the Electricity Authority, which is the beneficiary of subsidies from the government to the tune of USD 1 billion per year and still charges rates among the highest in the world for an intermittent supply.

In recent weeks, however, the supply has been better and cuts fewer. Quite why, no-one can say but it is a welcome relief from dependence on our stand-by generator. Everyone has to have an alternative to the main electricity supply and in all towns and cities privately owned neighbourhood generators will provide this service in return for a regular monthly payment. Others, like me, have their own generator, but with the cost of diesel fuel having increased by about 50% in the last month running costs have escalated and therefore the more reliable main supply is most welcome.

The Arab League “Summit” in Damascus a week ago has done nothing to resolve the Lebanese political situation. Boycotted by Lebanon, and attended by only low-level delegations from about half the membership, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, it was destined to become a non-event. On the surface, we seem to be in a situation where nothing is happening. Behind the scenes, there is talk of re-starting the National Dialogue” among all Lebanese factions and, while this is very desirable, the chances of it commencing discussions, let alone agreeing on anything, seem remote.

I shall be going to Cyprus this evening for five days, where progress towards a solution to the division of the island looks a better prospect that at any time in the past and much more likely than a solution to the political stalemate in Lebanon. During my stay in Cyprus the Lebanese parliament is scheduled to meet, yet again, on Tuesday to elect a president. As in the past, it is generally expected that the session will be postponed once more. At present no-one seems to be doing much about the matter and one is lead to the conclusion that neither side really wants an election to take palce. The present impasse may well drag on for a long time. The Arab League summit in Damascus next week should address the issue, but what is needed is the will on the part of the Lebanese political leaders to resolve the issues, and that seems to be sadly lacking. On a more positive note, the political rhetoric has diminished and violence has been largely avoided recently.

Alice in Wonderland seems an appropriate comparison to the situation in Lebanon sometimes.

You may recall that in December 2006 the pro-Syrian opposition withdrew its five cabinet members, thus, in their eyes, rendering the government unconstitutional. However, the Prime Minister did not accept the resignations,  the ministers stayed at home but continued to collect their salaries, the government continued to function and most lawyers are of the opinion that the government is operating within the constitution.

There is to be an Arab League summit in Damascus at the end of this month. In keeping with protocol, the Syrian government had, by the end of last week, dispatched a minister to each member country to deliver an invitation to the Head of State. Except, of course to Lebanon, where there has been no Head of State since November 23 2007. A number of countries let it be known that their respective monarchs/presidents would not attend the summit if Lebanon was not invited, so a few days ago the resigned (pro-Syrian) Lebanese foreign minister turned up at his office in Beirut to receive a minister from Syria who delivered an invitation, said to be addressed to the Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora. Now, of course, there is an ongoing debate about who, if anyone, should attend. Some say boycott the summit, some say send a low level delegation and some say the Prime Minister should attend. Watch this space!

I am at present in Oman, part way through a 10 day tour which includes Muscat, Salalah and more remote areas. Hence, the lack of postings recently. What a contrast Oman is to the rest of the Gulf. In many ways Oman today reminds me of Bahrain and Dubai when I first knew them almost 40 years ago. Everything still seems to close for a siesta between 1 and 4 pm, even the shopping centres – very civilized and so different to Dubai. The tallest building is a mere 12 floors and most are no more than three or four stories. Oman is one of the few places in the area where you will find citizens actually working in jobs other than the civil service and, maybe, banks and they outnumber foreigners four to one in the country, again a contrast to the UAE, where there are some four foreigners to every citizen.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese political crisis runs on. The election of a new president, scheduled for tomorrow, is certain to be postponed yet again and a French Foreign Ministry official has been outspoken enough to blame the lack of progress on the Lebanese political leaders themselves, rather than the outside influences that usually said to be the culprits.

Amr Moussa has now returned to Beirut to conduct what may well be make or break negotiations on the Arab League initiative. If he fails, it is likely that it will be