Random Thoughts from Lebanon

Well, yesterday the Lebanese parliament gave an overwhelming vote of confidence in the national unity government formed by Fouad Siniora, despite reservations expressed by some of the 60 members who spoke and sometimes heated debate between members of different political persuasions. So now the second stage of the process agreed in Doha has been accomplished. The president was elected and the national unity government has been established. The next task is amending the electoral law in time to hold parliamentary elections in May 2009. Although general  agreement on the necessary reforms was achieved in Doha, there is undoubtedly room for different interpretations on what has to be done and how to achieve it!

Otherwise, no-one expects much from what is a government with a limited life - 9 month maximum. It is very unlikely, given the opposition veto powers in cabinet, that anything controversial will be proposed, let alone decided. Matters such as privatisation or an increase in the VAT rate, which were among the commitments given at the Paris III conference, are unlikely to see the light of day.

And what does the rest of the world make of the ministerial statement to which parliament gave its approval. Typical of the headlines in the western media were “Lebanon to pass law legitimising Hezbollah attacks on Israel”. Inaccurate, but not so far from the truth.  Undoubtedly Israel is unhappy with developments, and has made it clear that it will regard any attack by Hezbollah as sanctioned by the Lebanese government and as a result may retaliate against any target in the country. This would differ from its attitude in the 2006 war, which was clearly against Hezbollah rather that the country, although this did not prevent the death of some 1200 civilians and substantial damage to infrastructure.

Today the president starts an official visit to Damascus, where it is expected that there will be agreement on establishing diplomatic relations between Lebanon and Syria and the exchange of ambassadors. There are many other matters on the agenda and expectations of progress on some of them, notwithsnding the parliamentary majority’s reservations.